Coronavirus: Youth Timebomb Feared

South Korea, which saw its first Covid-19 cases in late January, is hailed as a model of effective state intervention against the new coronavirus. By Friday, 13 March, only 67 people had succumbed to the disease in the Asian nation, with about 8,000 infected citizens being monitored in quarantine.

These patients have been identified through a combination of intensive public testing and meticulous follow-up. More than 200,000 South Koreans were tested for the virus in mere weeks. Those infected received treatment in quarantine, and every person they had been in contact with was then tracked down and tested too.

South Korea Compared To Italy

By blanket testing and then quarantining patients before they had the chance to infect many more people, South Korean authorities have slowed the spread of the virus to a pace their healthcare services can handle. It's a stark contrast to the situation in places like Italy, which also identified its first case in late January.

In Italy, patients were only tested once they began to show suspected Covid-19 symptoms. More than 1,000 people have since died, hospitals are overwhelmed, Italy is on lockdown with everyone staying inside and relying on online activities such as casino movil en linea Mexico games to keep them occupied. Yet there are still at least 15,000 Italians infected.

While the statistics from both countries should not be compared directly, it is clear that detection and quarantine is the best way to contain the virus. However, a major discrepancy between Italian and South Korean statistics could point to a hidden pitfall.

Infected Under-30s Seem Healthy

When infection rates are analysed according to age groups, both Italy and South Korea show a similar pattern in the 50-59 age range: 18.1% of those who tested positive for coronavirus fall into this group in Italy, and 18.9% in South Korea. In the 60-69, 70-79 and 80+ age groups, Italy's figures then rise: comprising 18.3%, 22.2% and 19.1%, respectively.

In South Korea, those percentages drop: to 12.3%, 5.7% and 3.0% respectively. This indicates the success of their approach to slowing the spread among the elderly: in Italy, more than 77% of patients are older than 50; in South Korea, it's less than 40%.

Worryingly, though, South Korea has found that 29.9% of its infected citizens are in the 20-29 age group; the Italian figure is only 3.7%. Given that Italy only tests people showing symptoms, and the South Korean results were obtained through blanket testing and investigating potential vectors, this implies a frightening possibility.

It's not necessarily true that Italy, or any other country that only tests patients who show potential symptoms, is largely free of the virus among the under-30s. What the South Korean figures indicate, is that many younger people may be carrying the virus, but not showing any symptoms.

Social Distancing Saves Lives

Computer generated simulations provided by the Washington Post have modelled different responses to the virus. They demonstrate that social distancing and self-isolation, adopted by 75% of the population, remain the most effective tools to slow its spread and ensure health services are not overwhelmed.

In addition, the South Korean data is a strong argument that even younger people with healthy immune systems should adopt these techniques, to lower their chances of becoming vectors for the virus. They may be able to spread it without even realising they are infected.